Pages

Monday, December 1, 2014

Is Facebook Doomed to Fail?

Published on the Sunday Times (TechSunday) 7th December 2014

The post year 2000 dot-com boom saw a shift from static websites providing information and articles to interactive online social networks.  During July 2003 MySpace started a revolution and less than a year later both Hi5.com and Facebook, at that time called Thefacebook.com and available only to a select few university students, were launched as well.

In the local scene up to 2010 the Hi5 service was still quite popular, but today it seems that Facebook is the cool place to be, or is it?

A technical study published earlier this year by some scholars from Princeton University (see reference below) is using statistical models to compare adoption and abandonment of such social platforms and state that all online networks are bound to face their demise just as happened with Hi5 and Myspace which are practically unused nowadays.  This study argues that abandonment of a particular platform happens just like an infectious disease where contact between people who use Facebook may lead to their peers to join and people who abandon Facebook or start using an alternative may ‘infect’ their friends and pressure them to follow suit.